Dr. HP Singh, CEO, Venkateshwara Institute of Medical Sciences

As the global health community remains vigilant against emerging infectious diseases, the question of mpox’s potential impact on India warrants careful consideration. According to recent statements from a Health Ministry official, the risk of a large-scale outbreak of mpox in India is currently deemed low. However, with a population of over 1.4 billion, even seemingly benign skin conditions can easily go unnoticed. This scenario prompts a critical examination of what impact mpox might have if it were to spread within such a densely populated nation.

Mpox, a virus closely related to smallpox, has demonstrated variable virulence across different regions. In several African countries, the strain of mpox in circulation is notably more virulent, with a reported mortality rate of approximately 3%. In contrast, the less virulent strain observed in other areas presents a significantly lower mortality rate of about 0.1%. While mpox infections generally resolve within 2 to 4 weeks with supportive care, the potential for severe outcomes cannot be disregarded.

The transmission of mpox requires close contact with infected individuals or contaminated materials, and it can spread through various routes, including respiratory droplets, bodily fluids, and direct contact with skin lesions. Despite its comparatively lower transmission rate, the possibility of a surge in cases, particularly in densely populated areas, remains a valid concern.

Given this context, the pressing question emerges: Could India be at risk of experiencing an outbreak of mpox on a scale similar to what was witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic? While it is crucial to acknowledge that the immediate risk remains low, the need for robust surveillance and response systems cannot be overstated.

Effective surveillance is paramount for early detection and containment of mpox outbreaks. India’s vast and diverse population, combined with its complex healthcare landscape, necessitates a comprehensive surveillance system capable of promptly identifying and responding to potential cases. This system should include:

1. Enhanced Diagnostic Capacity: Ensuring that healthcare facilities are equipped with the necessary tools and training to accurately diagnose mpox and differentiate it from other dermatological conditions.

2. Public Awareness and Education: Implementing widespread educational campaigns to inform the public about the symptoms of mpox, preventive measures, and the importance of seeking timely medical attention.

3. Strengthening Reporting Mechanisms: Establishing efficient channels for healthcare providers to report suspected cases of mpox, facilitating rapid response and investigation.

4. Collaborative Efforts: Coordinating with international health organizations and neighboring countries to monitor trends and share information regarding mpox outbreaks and preventive strategies.

5. Research and Development: Investing in research to better understand mpox, including its epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and potential vaccines or treatments.

While the current risk of a large mpox outbreak in India is assessed as low, the importance of maintaining vigilance cannot be overlooked. The lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic underscore the need for preparedness and proactive measures in the face of emerging infectious threats. By strengthening our surveillance systems and fostering a culture of preparedness, we can mitigate the potential impact of mpox and safeguard public health effectively.